Why this report?
Why a report now?
What should Europe do?
What should Turkey do?
Why this report?
Europeans should remember both the many benefits that flow from Turkey's pursuit of accession to the European Union, and the EU's obligation to stick to its commitment to keep the path to membership open.
We are calling on Europe not to close the door to Turkey for several reasons. The first is simply about European credibility: Europe has repeatedly promised EU membership for Turkey, if it fulfils all the criteria. The second reason is that the long-term EU-Turkey relationship should not unfairly be made the scapegoat for short-term, domestic European worries about jobs, immigration, Islam and EU institutional arrangements. After all, on purely technical criteria, Turkey is not going to be ready to join Europe for at least a decade – and more likely two. Even then, the EU and Turkey will likely agree to even longer restrictions on matters like freedom of labor movement. The third reason is that in the long term Europe does need to keep close to Turkey, with its unique geo-strategic position, its fast-growing economic potential and its young and dynamic workforce. Turkey-EU convergence is a positive process that is already doing much evident good for both sides. This virtuous circle must be re-established.
Why a report now?
The Independent Commission reported in 2004, and recommended that accession negotiations should begin, which they did in October 2005. However, subsequent progress in the negotiations has been slow. A major hindrance to the accession process has been the Cyprus problem. This year there is a historic opportunity to resolve this 40-year-old dispute, with a UN-facilitated effort between the leaders of the two communities on the island. The window of opportunity is short, and it is likely to close early in 2010. The EU and Turkey must both engage urgently to encourage a settlement, and clear away a major obstacle on the path to accession.
What should Europe do?
Unfair obstacles have been put in Turkey's path to the EU, blocking more than half of the negotiating chapters. Europe must take the lead in breaking the vicious circle that has set in, live up to its long-standing commitments to Turkey and remove unfair obstacles on its path to eventual EU membership.
European Councils have repeatedly reaffirmed Turkey's possibility of joining the Union, if and when it has fulfilled all conditions. The opening of accession negotiations has been overwhelmingly backed by the European Parliament and national parliaments. The back-sliding on these commitments since 2005 should end. The idea of substituting "a privileged partnership" is particularly deceptive, since it cannot offer Turkey any privilege it does not already have. It seems aimed at depriving Turkey of the benefits of full EU membership. On top of this, removing the goal of membership gives no motivation to Turkey to continue with expensive and difficult reforms.
Negative statements and actions by EU leaders have played a key role in demotivating Turkey since 2005 and undermining its energy to reform. European politicians claim they are following opinion polls, but studies show their statements also lead those same polls downwards. France is blocking five chapters of Turkey's EU negotiating framework, and there has been no progress on a dozen others because of the Cyprus issue and obstruction from the Republic of Cyprus itself. These include three of the most important and promising areas for joint EU-Turkish action, namely Energy; External Relations; and Foreign, Security and Defence Policy. This is all making the EU lose leverage in Turkey, just as Turkey is becoming a real regional power.
What should Turkey do?
Turkey must restart its engines of reform. It deserves better treatment by the EU, but must also prove the sincerity of its wish to reach EU standards in all walks of life.
In a golden period of reform between 2000 and 2005, inspired by the real offer of a chance to join the EU, Turkey rewrote one-third of its authoritarian constitution, enacted international human rights legislation, abolished the death penalty, improved women's rights, brought new safeguards against torture and ushered in reform of the prison system. New laws curtailed once draconian restrictions on freedom of expression, association and the media. The Turkish armed forces stepped further back from their once-dominant role, Turkish-Kurdish tensions faded and Turks began to openly debate the Armenian question. This new confidence helped power six years of 7% economic growth and an unprecedented wave of foreign investment. Outside Turkey, this partnership with the EU encouraged Ankara to make strong contributions to international peacekeeping missions. Turkey also sponsored a major chance in 2004 to settle the frozen Cyprus conflict.
It is true that a grand domestic political struggle distracted the AKP from reforms in the 2007-2009 period, but all sides in Turkey must act now to save the country's EU convergence process from coming to a complete standstill. The main parties must move forward on drafting a new constitution to replace the one drawn up under military rule in 1982. They must work together on legislating a new Political Parties Law to make parties more democratic. There should also be a functioning ombudsman, full freedoms for religious organizations, respect for cultural liberties and wider freedom of expression. Two years without elections lie ahead of us in Turkey. We are convinced that comprehensive, consistent and sustained progress towards more democracy at home is the best way to persuade more Europeans of Turkey's EU compatibility.
